Dartmouth Researcher Predicts 105 Medals for USA at Rio Olympics

Camila F. Gonzales

PredictionThe United States will win 105 medals at the Rio Olympics
SourceDartmouth Tuck School of Business [pdf]
Date of PredictionJuly 22, 2016
Date to CheckAugust 22, 2016
AccuracyIncorrect

From the Washington Post:

For 2016, their model predicts that the United States will come out on top, winning 105 medals overall, ahead of China with 89, Britain with 67, Russia with 62 and Germany with 48. They also predict that the United States will lead the gold medal count with 48, followed by China with 38.


8.14.16 Update:

After a week of competition, the United States has won 66 medals, more than halfway to the 105 medals predicted by Gonzales. Thirty-three of these medals were for swimming events, with Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky winning eleven of those medals.


Update: Researcher’s Prediction of 105 Way Off as USA Racks up 118 Medals

With only a few hours of Olympic competition left, Team USA has far surpassed the predicted medal count of 105 by racking up 118 medals – with more to come. The prediction of 105 medals seemed reasonable given the recent history of the United States in the Summer Olympics.

Team USA Summer Olympics History

Not since 1984 has Team USA won so many medals in summer olympic competition.

We’re rating this prediction “incorrect.”