Technical Analyst Predicts Oil Slump Through August

Oil Prediction - Wrong

Sandy Jadeja

Prediction80% probability of lower oil prices from July 2, right through to August 18.
SourceBusiness Insider
Date of PredictionJuly 20, 2016
Date to CheckAugust 18, 2016
AccuracyIncorrect

As of the prediction, oil was trading at $45 per barrel. Jadeja’s prediction is fairly conservative, given that he is billed as the “man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes.”


Update: Oil Climbs Past $45 in August, Contrary to Jadeja’s Prediction

More evidence that you shouldn’t trust the divinations of technical traders. Jadeja’s prediction that oil would drop through August 18 looked to be coming true as oil slumped through the end of July. But in early August, the price promptly turned around and started heading up. As of close on Friday, August 18, oil was trading at $46.96.

Crude Oil 7.20.16 to 8.20.16
Crude Oil 7.20.16 to 8.20.16

We rate this prediction a big miss. If you had shorted oil on July 20, you’d have lost money. Of course, if you had exited your position in early August, you would have made a decent return.