|Prediction||80% probability of lower oil prices from July 2, right through to August 18.|
|Date of Prediction||July 20, 2016|
|Date to Check||August 18, 2016|
As of the prediction, oil was trading at $45 per barrel. Jadeja’s prediction is fairly conservative, given that he is billed as the “man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes.”
Update: Oil Climbs Past $45 in August, Contrary to Jadeja’s Prediction
More evidence that you shouldn’t trust the divinations of technical traders. Jadeja’s prediction that oil would drop through August 18 looked to be coming true as oil slumped through the end of July. But in early August, the price promptly turned around and started heading up. As of close on Friday, August 18, oil was trading at $46.96.
We rate this prediction a big miss. If you had shorted oil on July 20, you’d have lost money. Of course, if you had exited your position in early August, you would have made a decent return.