Crystal Ball / Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, Geoffrey Skelley, Rhodes Cook, Alan Abramowitz
|Prediction||Hillary Clinton will win the presidency in a landslide: 347 to 191|
|Source||Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball|
|Date of Prediction||August 4, 2016|
|Date to Check||November 9, 2016|
Sabato has a track record of calling presidential elections with amazing accuracy. In 2004, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted Bush would win re-election. The Crystal Ball brags that it achieved 99% accuracy in predicting Senate, House, and Governor races, although many of those are in non-competitive districts and states, so the overall predictive ability may not be surprising.
In the most recent 2012 presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted in July of that year that Obama would win the popular vote by one percentage point and ultimately win re-election in the Electoral College. The Crystal Ball predicted that Obama would lose two states that he ultimately won: Florida and Virginia.
This election cycle has been perhaps the most unpredictable and chaotic of any in at least 50 years. With three months to go in the election, the Crystal Ball is projecting that Clinton will win by a 347-191 electoral vote margin. (Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast is slightly rosier for Clinton, predicting a 353-185 win as of right now.)
What’s more surprising, however, is that the Crystal Ball made the very same 347-191 prediction three months ago. Since that time, Trump and Clinton wrapped up their respective nominations, Clinton was hammered over Emailgate, and Trump made 14,365 gaffes that would have sunk the nomination of any other candidate in any other year.