Ignore the Polls: Three Other Reasons Trump Might Win

Donald J. Trump

The public polls are grim. Hillary Clinton is crushing Donald Trump in every state where it matters: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Even Trump himself is starting to hedge, planning for a long, long vacation if he comes up short in the election. Belief among Republicans that Trump will win has dropped off significantly in the past week, according to pollster YouGov.com. And to add more doom to the gloom, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com puts Trump’s chances of winning at 11.1%.

Hillary vs. Trump from fivethirtyeight.com - 8.14.16 Polls-Only Prediction
Hillary vs. Trump from fivethirtyeight.com – 8.14.16 Polls-Only Prediction

But are the polls telling the whole story? Many people are saying – to use a common Trump phrase – that other factors indicate a Trump win. And not just a win, a landslide!

Trump Wins in the Third Act

Scott AdamsScott Adams, the uber-cynical creator of the comic strip “Dilbert,” postulates that Trump is in the second act of the three-act play called The Presidential Election.

“I still predict a Trump landslide, based on the 3rd act movie formula,” Adams wrote. “Trump is in his deepest hole right now. This is when the surprise happens (next two months) if it is going to happen.”

To his credit, Adams accepts that Trump is probably down in the polls, although he claims that some polls may be “rigged.” He sees a lot of downside for Clinton, including the possibility of a health issue, damaging releases from Wikileaks, or revelations about the Clinton Foundation that are worse than what we already know. There’s less downside for Trump, as any bad news about him is “already baked into the cake.”

When your life is devoted to a three-cell comic strip, you probably see the world in three-part stories. For better or for worse, American politics isn’t always as predictable as a three-act play. It’s usually unending tragedy punctuated with just enough modest triumph to keep it interesting.

Social Media Points to Trump

Donald Trump Twitter Profile

Gateway Pundit’s brother, Joe Hoft, sees social media pointing to a Trump landslide. If you look at Facebook, for example, Trump has 10.2 million “likes” versus a paltry 5.4 million “likes” for Clinton. When you compare viewership of their most recent Facebook live streams, Trump’s received 1.5 million views, while Clinton’s only received 320,000 views.

Trump also has more Twitter followers than Clinton – 10.6 million vs. 8.1 million. That should come as no surprise, as Trump’s primary way of reaching his base is through tweetstorms. Meanwhile, Clinton became the first presidential candidate to start a podcast.

A political race can’t be handicapped based on social media activity alone. Trump is and always has been an entertainer, so his popularity on Twitter and Facebook isn’t surprising. Many that follow him on social media won’t actually vote for him – they’re following him to view the tweetstorms as they happen.

Zip App Users Suggest Blowout for Trump

Zip AppThe makers of the app Zip are predicting that Trump will win based on responses to questions on the app.

Ric Militi, co-founder of the company that makes Zip, claims that the app is better than traditional polling. “People feel comfortable answering questions without fear of being bullied or being called a racist,” Militi said.

Militi’s explanation doesn’t make sense – pollsters are not bullying anonymous poll respondents into choosing Clinton. And Zip’s user base is unlikely to represent an accurate cross-section of the electorate.

Still, in response to a recent question – “New polls suggest Trump is getting crushed by Clinton. Do they reflect how you are going to vote?” – 64% responded in favor of Trump, while only 36% favored Clinton. If Zip users are right, it’ll be a blowout.

Random Twitter Users Predict Trump Win

And then there’s the nobodies, tweeting about a Trump victory into the vast digital void. Ok, this is not really a reason Trump is going to win, but if you’re a Trump supporter and you need some comfort, I offer you the following tweets that are confident that Trump will pull it off in November.